Kirkland, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

859
FXUS66 KSEW 302301
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
401 PM PDT Sun Mar 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A weak disturbance will bring scattered showers and
cooler conditions throughout the middle of the week. Ridging
looks to develop later on in the week and into the weekend for
drier and warmer conditions across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...Recent satellite imagery
shows high level clouds moving in ahead of approaching showers
from the south. High temperatures this afternoon ranging from the
upper 50s into the lower 60s thanks to offshore flow. An upper
level low offshore will aid in the spin up of showers this evening
starting at the coast first, then spreading inland tonight. These
showers generally will be scattered in nature and lacking in QPF
heading into Monday. On and off shower activity will continue into
Monday with low pressure spinning offshore.

The upper low will move southward into Oregon on Tuesday and into
Wednesday, bringing most of the shower activity with it. Drier
conditions can be expected throughout the middle of the week,
with a stray shower or two possible. Afternoon highs in the mid
50s.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...Ensembles are starting to
converge in a pattern change, from broad troughing on Thursday to
a upper level ridge building on Friday and throughout the weekend.
Clusters are also highlighting a high amplitude ridge building
over the Pacific Northwest - which would bring drier and warmer
conditions throughout the weekend. There is still some
uncertainty of the strength and size of this ridge, but it is
becoming increasingly likely that we will see warmer temperatures
and some nice spring time weather next weekend!

Mazurkiewicz

&&

.AVIATION...Southerly flow will continue aloft throughout the
period as an upper level low approaches the region. At the surface,
easterly winds have started to pick up across the area this
afternoon, especially for terminals susceptible to gap winds
across the central Sound (KSEA, KBFI, KPWT). Sustained easterly
winds across the central Sound will generally persist at 10-15 kt,
with gusts to 25-30 kt possible through this evening. Winds will
then transition to more S/SE as a frontal system lifts northward
across the area tonight. Winds along the coast (mainly impacting
KHQM) remain gusty this afternoon as well, with sustained winds
persisting at 15-20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Winds elsewhere across
the Sound (KBLI, KOLM) remain mostly out of the N/NE at 5-10 kt.

Overall conditions have rebounded to VFR for most area terminals
this afternoon. The next round of rain associated with the incoming
frontal system will move up into the area from the south tonight
(between 00-06Z), with showers expected to persist across the area
into Monday. Expect VFR cigs/vis to continue through the majority
of this evening, though could see cigs/vis briefly dip towards
MVFR tonight in any heavier showers that make it into area terminals.
A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions is expected to develop across
the region overnight into early Monday.

KSEA...VFR conditions expected to persist through much of the TAF
period, however a brief reduction to MVFR cigs exists this evening
(likely between 00-03z) as the next round of rain moves into the
terminal. Overall probabilities for cigs to lower to MVFR Monday
morning remain low (between 10-20%). E winds are gusty this afternoon,
with gusts generally expected to persist between 25-30 kt, though
isolated gusts to 35-40 kt will be possible at times. Winds look
to remain gusty through 06Z and will transition to S/SE (03-06Z)
as the front makes its way across the area.

14

&&

.MARINE...Offshore flow continues this afternoon with a 990 mb
surface low situated roughly 550 NM offshore. Breezy easterly
winds will continue for portions of the western Strait of Juan de
Fuca and for the northern coastal water zones through this
evening. While gusts to 25 kt are possible in the western Strait
during this time, gusts look to remain localized to the far
western portions of the Strait -so have opted to keep the area out
of a Small Craft Advisory for now. However, a Small Craft
Advisory does remain in effect for easterlies across the northern
coastal water zones through this evening before winds turn
southerly tonight.

A frontal system associated with the low will lift across the
area waters tonight into Monday, allowing for winds to transition
back to southerly. This system will bring another round of small
craft advisory strength winds to the coastal waters and to the
interior waters of Admiralty Inlet, the Eastern Strait, and the
Northern Inland Waters. Winds will then ease into Monday
afternoon.

The surface low then looks to push inland over Oregon on Tuesday.
Increasing onshore flow through the Strait Tuesday evening into
Wednesday may yield another round of headlines. Otherwise, additional
weak systems may drop down into the area waters from the north
around midweek, but do not look to have as much of an impact at
this time. High pressure then looks to build into the area waters
Thursday and Friday.

Seas persisting at 3 to 6 ft this afternoon will increase to 7 to
9 ft Monday and may briefly approach 10 ft by late Monday night.
Seas then look to subside and hover around 6-8 ft through midweek,
before subsiding towards 3-5 ft Thursday as high pressure builds.

14

&&

.HYDROLOGY...The Skokomish River will remain in action stage into
midweek, but overall QPF through the week ahead does not look
sufficient to produce any flood concerns there or along any other
rivers across the region through the upcoming week. 27

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM PDT Monday
     for Admiralty Inlet-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of
     Juan De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan
     Islands.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM PDT Monday for Coastal Waters
     From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
     Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM PDT Monday for Coastal Waters
     From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
     Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10
     To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
     Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.

&&

$$